Журнал "Проблеми економіки" 2024, № 2

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Browsing Журнал "Проблеми економіки" 2024, № 2 by Subject "SOCIAL SCIENCES::Business and economics::Economics::Econometrics"

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    Assessing Competitive Advantages and Challenges of the Ukrainian Tech Ecosystem during Wartime
    (Науково-дослідний центр індустріальних проблем розвитку НАН України, 2024) Лук'яненко, Ірина Григорівна; Сова, Євгеній Станіславович
    The aim of the article is to identify the competitive advantages and key obstacles hindering the development of the technology sector in Ukraine during the period of martial law, as well as to develop potential scenarios for further development of the innovation ecosystem of Ukraine and appropriate strategies for implementation in each of the scenarios. An additional area of analysis is to test the hypothesis about the key role of investment in stimulating innovation. The study used general statistical and economic approaches, in particular, visual, scenario and correlation analysis. Within the framework of the study, it was demonstrated that the competitive advantages of the innovation ecosystem of Ukraine are a strong research and educational base, a high level of professionalism and technical skills of IT specialists, creativity and a number of innovative technological products. Among the main problems hindering its development are the level of stability of the institutional and regulatory environment, limited access to financial resources and lack of investment. It also confirmed the hypothesis that there is a statistically significant relationship between the level of investment in research and development (R&D) and the number of patents registered. The results of the study can be used to develop appropriate approaches to strategic analysis, in particular in terms of developing scenarios for the development of Ukrainian startups in the face of unprecedented risks, such as the period of martial law. Prospects for further research on this topic are a detailed quantitative and qualitative analysis of the impact of the implementation of programs for financing and stimulating investment in Ukrainian startups on the indicators of innovative development of the technological ecosystem of Ukraine. A separate research task is to develop a road-map for effective institutional changes necessary to ensure a favorable regulatory and business environment for Ukrainian startups based on international experience.
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    Johansen’s Cointegration Analysis of Some Factors of Economic Growth and Exports of Products from the Republic of Azerbaijan to Ukraine
    (Науково-дослідний центр індустріальних проблем розвитку НАН України, 2024) Alizade, Arzu Rafik; Алізаде, Арзу Рафік кизи
    In the present paper, a Johansen’s cointegration analysis is carried out considering the volume of exports from Azerbaijan to Ukraine, GDP per capita of Ukraine, the openness of the economy of Ukraine and the economically active population of Azerbaijan for the period 1996-2022, also a comparative analysis of the above indicators is carried out, the characteristics of joint short-term and long-term movements are determined. In the course of research the author used the methodology of modified gravitational modeling, the econometric methodology of time series analysis, including tests for checking stationarity, the extended Dickey-Fuller test, the Granger test for the detection of causality, determining the cointegration dependence using the Johansen’s test, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) has been built. First, a basic modified model of gravity has been built, and the statistical adequacy of this model has been checked. A comparative analysis of two regression models was carried out after the inclusion of the trend component in one of them. The dynamic structure of regression residuals was studied and the test for heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation was carried out. It is shown that the most suitable specification for cointegration is the quadratic trend in the initial levels with a linear trend in cointegration relationships, which has led to the emergence of two cointegration vectors. As a result of the completed analysis, two cointegration relationships are obtained. The results of the impulse response functions, decomposition of dispersions and the VECM model in the form of combinations of two cointegrating vectors with the expected signs of the adjustment integers showed that the economic indicators used in the analysis for the specified period maintain cointegration in the long term with the not stable equilibrium joint movements of the factors under study.